FKN Newz

2, 4, 6, 8 … how do we exterminate

“Even at [+]4C, only a tiny fraction of humanity is expected to survive.”

http://www.culturechange.org/cms/index.php?

option=com_content&task=view&id=562&Itemid=1

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/world-on-course-for-catastrophic-6deg-rise-reveal-scientists-1822396.html

clip 6C rise: The consequences

“It would cause a mass extinction of almost all life and probably reduce humanity to a few struggling groups of embattled survivors clinging to life near the poles.”

So, what does +4 or +6C (above the pre-industrial global mean surface temp of +15C) mean to you?

Well, for example (from an Excel spread sheet I built)

at +4C, your local current temperatures of:

70F becomes 89F, 80F becomes 101F, 90 F becomes 114F, and 100F becomes 127F

at +6C, your local current temperatures of:

70F becomes 98F, 80F becomes 112F, 90 F becomes 126F, and 100F becomes 140F

At 110+F you (we) are ‘extra crispy’, at 120F you are ‘baked’

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from earlier this year

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/science/article2726751.ece

1.5 to 2C > 20-30% extinction (by mid century and (on the current trajectory expect] +6.4 by 2100 with BAU.
————–
article projecting +11C by 2100

http://www.nature.com/climate/2009/0905/full/climate.2009.41.html

First, some clips from http://www.culturechange.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=409&Itemid=1
[ translation in square brackets, based on current GMST of 15C and pre-ind mean of 14C]

“A rise of 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial temperatures [+1C above today, 14% above pre-ind. e.g., 90F becomes 103F] will initiate large climate feedbacks in the oceans, on ice-sheets, and on the tundra, taking the Earth well past signi?cant tipping points. Likely impacts include large-scale disintegration of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice-sheet; the extinction of an estimated 15– 40 per cent of plant and animal species; dangerous ocean acidi?cation; increasing methane release; substantial soil and ocean carbon-cycle feedbacks; and widespread drought and deserti?cation in Africa, Australia, Mediterranean Europe, and the western USA.”

[ Adding: as with surface ice loss, desertification dramatically increases thermal albedo as more solar radiation is absorbed by the earth rather than by plants. Solar flux no longer 'employed'/captured in photosynthesis is therefore absorbed as heat by the ground to be re-radiated back into the atmosphere]

“… from the Pliocene 3 million years ago we know what a +3 degrees Celsius world [= 21% above pre-ind., 90F becomes 109F] would likely be: a northern hemisphere free of glaciers and icesheets, where beech trees grew in the Transantarctic mountains, sea levels were 25 metres [82 feet]] higher, and probably permanent El Nino conditions. NASA climate chief Dr James Hansen (PDF) has warned that a 3 degrees Celsius warming “threatens even greater calamity, because it could unleash positive feedbacks such as melting of frozen methane in the Arctic, as occurred 55 million years ago, when more than 90 per cent of species on Earth went extinct”.”

“At 4 degrees Celsius [+3C above today and >+29% pre-ind. 90F becomes 116F] hundreds of billions of tonnes of carbon locked up in Arctic permafrost – particularly in Siberia – would melt, releasing methane and carbon dioxide in immense quantities, and make further human action to mitigate emissions futile.”

“Five degrees of warming [36% above pre-industrial mean or +4C above today, 90F becomes 123F] last occurred 55 million years ago: breadfruit trees grew on the coast of Greenland, while the Arctic Ocean saw water temperatures of 20 degrees Celsius [68F]. There was no ice at either pole (today that means a 70-metre sea-level rise [230 feet]), and much of the world would have been desertified.”

‘nevermind’ [for the moment] the maximum survival temperatures of terrestrial vertebrates and plants

Here’s some data for the common house fly Musca domestica: [a 'tough critter' on anyone's list], it’s maximal efficiency occurs at 27.9C [82.2F] and death by coma occurs within 5 minutes when exposed to 44.6C (112.3F)

No known vascular plant (including succulents e.g. cacti) can survive 52C (125.6F) [short-term] or – in other words, no place on Earth that currently typical experiences 90F temperatures at some point of the year will not have any plants of any kind at +5C (if not before) – entirely regardless of any/all other parameters. No plants = no animals, insects, etc. aka life.

“When mammalian enzymes reach about 110 deg F (~43 C) they unwind and stop functioning. In the human body there are many vital functions that rely on enzymes. However because our body’s cooling system can keep the internal temperature below the ambient temperature, we can survive in environments hotter than 110 [for awhile].”

A core body temp. of 42C [107.6F] is often lethal in humans and irreversible brain damage can start to occur at 41C.

From WIKI on Thermoregulation
” … too high a temperature hurries on the metabolism of the various tissues at such a rate that their capital is soon exhausted. Blood that is too warm produces dyspnea and soon exhausts the metabolic capital of the respiratory centre. Heart rate is increased, the beats then become arrhythmic and finally cease. The central nervous system is also profoundly affected, consciousness may be lost, and the patient falls into a comatose condition, or delirium and convulsions may set in. All these changes can be watched in any patient suffering from an acute fever. The lower limit of temperature that man can endure depends on many things, but no one can survive a temperature of 45°C (113°F) or above for very long. Mammalian muscle becomes rigid with heat rigor at about 50°C, and obviously should this temperature be reached the sudden rigidity of the whole body would render life impossible.”

H.M. Vernon has done work on the death temperature and paralysis temperature (temperature of heat rigor) of various animals. He found that animals of the same class of the animal kingdom showed very similar temperature values, those from the Amphibia examined being 38.5°C (101.3F) , Fish 39°C (102.2F), Reptilia 45°C (113F), and various Molluscs 46°C (114.8F). …”

Humans (body temperature)

37°C (98.6°F) – Normal body temperature (which varies between about 36.12-37.5°C (96.8-99.5°F)
38°C (100.4°F) – Sweating, feeling very uncomfortable, slightly hungry.
39°C (102.2°F) – Severe sweating, flushed and very red. Fast heart rate and breathlessness. There may be exhaustion accompanying this. Children and people with epilepsy may be very likely to get convulsions at this point.
40°C (104°F) – Fainting, dehydration, weakness, vomiting, headache and dizziness may occur as well as profuse sweating.
41°C (105.8°F) – (Medical emergency) – Fainting, vomiting, severe headache, dizziness, confusion, hallucinations, delirium and drowsiness can occur. There may also be palpitations and breathlessness.
42°C (107.6°F) – Subject may turn pale or remain flushed and red. They may become comatose, be in severe delirium, vomiting, and convulsions can occur. Blood pressure may be high or low and heart rate will be very fast.
43°C (109.4°F) – Normally death, or there may be serious brain damage, continuous convulsions and shock. Cardio-respiratory collapse will likely occur.
44°C (111.2°F) or more – Almost certainly death will occur; however, patients have been known to survive up to 46.5°C (115.7°F).
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